The Return of Realism in Global Oil Forecasts: A Critique of the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2025
NCEA returns on January 27, 2026 with its third installment—this time highlighting the flawed– and sometimes dangerously wrong– assumptions in the IEA’s 2025 World Energy Outlook (WEO), rebutting its widely reported forecast that world oil demand will peak in 2032.
This briefing will examine the core assumptions embedded in the WEO, assess their realism, and explore how alternative—but credible—assumptions lead to very different outcomes for global oil markets, energy security, and economic stability.
Program Agenda
January 27, 2026, 10:30am – 12:00pm ET
Washington, D.C. and Online
10:30 am – Welcome
Portia Roberts, Deputy Executive Director of NCEA
10:35 am – Report Findings from
The Return of Realism in Global Oil Forecasts: A Critique of the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2025
Neil Atkinson – Visiting Fellow at NCEA, Former Head of IEA Oil Markets Division
Adam Sieminski – Senior Advisor at KAPSARC, Former Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration under President Barack H. Obama
11:00 am – Fireside Chat (Industry Perspective)
Robert “Bob” McNally – Founder of Rapidan Energy Group, Former White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush
Neil Atkinson – Visiting Fellow at NCEA, Former Head of IEA Oil Markets Division
Adam Sieminski – Senior Advisor at KAPSARC, Former Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration under President Barack H. Obama
11:30 am – Q&A
11:50 am – Closing Remarks
Mark P. Mills, Executive Director of NCEA
Portia Roberts, Deputy Executive Director of NCEA
12:00 pm – Program Concludes
Speakers
Robert McNally
Founder of Rapidan Group
Robert (“Bob”) McNally is the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington, DC-based independent energy market policy and geopolitical consulting fi rm. Bob’s 33-year career includes service as a White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush, an oil market analyst, and a hedge fund strategist at Tudor Investment Corporation. His acclaimed book Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices (Columbia University Press, 2017) won the IAEE ‘Marcel Boiteux Best International Energy Economics Book Award in 2023 and Bob was awarded the IAEE Adelman-Frankel Award in 2024.
Leading media outlets regularly interview Bob, who frequently testifi es before Congress on energy markets and national security. From 2001 to 2003, he served as Special Assistant to the President on the White House National Economic Council and, in 2003, as Senior Director for International Energy on the National Security Council. Bob earned his B.A./B.S. in Political Science and International Relations from American University and his M.A. in International Economics and Foreign Policy from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
Neil Atkinson
Visiting Fellow at NCEA
Neil Atkinson has over 40 years’ experience in the energy industry. His most recent position was head of the Oil Industry & Markets Division at the International Energy Agency (2016–21). Atkinson’s experience began in 1979, when he joined Petróleos de Venezuela (UK) SA. His last position there was Business Advisor, Western Hemisphere Energy Markets. In 1998, Atkinson moved to the McGraw Hill Companies where he served as Director, Europe, Africa, & Middle East for Platts Analysis & Consulting. After a short period at DRI-WEFA, he went to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, reporting to Robert Mabro as head of administration. Atkinson held subsequent roles as head of research at the Energy Intelligence Group, head of market studies at KBC Energy Economics, director of Datamonitor Energy, and head of analysis at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. During 1992–2002, Atkinson was Honorary Secretary of the British Institute of Energy Economics. He is a Liveryman in the Worshipful Company of Fuellers in London. Atkinson is widely published and has testified on energy issues before the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee and has briefed NATO on energy security issues. He has extensive broadcasting and public speaking experience.
Adam Sieminski
Senior Advisor at KAPSARC
Adam Sieminski is currently a Senior Advisor at KAPSARC, an energy-focused advisory think tank in Riyadh, where he previously served as President from 2018 to 2021. Before that, he held the Schlesinger Chair for Energy and Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he still contributes as a non-resident expert. From 2012 to 2017, he was the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and prior to that, served as Senior Director for Energy and Environment on the U.S. National Security Council.
Sieminski worked as Deutsche Bank’s chief energy economist and as an integrated oil company analyst, and before that held several positions as an energy financial analyst in Baltimore, London, New York, and Washington. He is active in several professional associations, including the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) and the U.S. Association for Energy Economics (USAEE). He holds degrees in civil engineering (BS) and public administration (MPA) from Cornell University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Sieminski also leads the nonprofit Friends of Peirce Mill, supporting a historic water-powered gristmill in Washington, DC.