Study: Maritime Shipping is the Black Hole of the Energy Transition
New report examines the connection between maritime shipping, critical minerals and the renewable power industry
The global shipping industry has long played a central role in the energy-materials supply chain. Yet, few energy forecasts and analysts have considered how maritime shipping is a weak link of the energy transition, according to a National Center for Energy Analytics report. The analysis reveals that several logistical challenges exist to delivering to market the increase in critical minerals for clean technology.
"Experts predict a fourfold to sixfold increase in the use of critical and rare earth minerals. But if we meet this current assumption and secure this amount of supply, maritime shipping will be a bottleneck if they don't address the hurdles to transport these minerals," said NCEA senior fellow and the report's author G. Allen Brooks. He's also an energy analyst with more than 50 years in the maritime and oilfield services industries.
One challenge is the likely shortage of ships. Brooks argues energy transition advocates have failed to consider the shipping capacity required to transport the staggering rise in maritime ton-miles needed for the transition.
"The data suggests the world will need to nearly double shipyard capacity to build enough ships to carry the new tonnage by 2035 to support transition goals (and to replace older existing vessels). Today, the U.S. annually builds less than 1% of the world's new vessel tonnage," the report stated. "Nearly 80% of all the world's goods in trade are already carried on ships."
Other shipping concerns are increased maritime traffic and the need for new trade routes, along with the location of mining and refining concentration enterprises.
"Maritime shipping is a linchpin for the energy transition but it's also a black hole," Brooks said. "The strategic and economic role of maritime fleets should not be underestimated."
To meet the rising demand for minerals, Brooks urges U.S. policymakers to examine existing maritime regulations and legal structures, including the Jones Act, which requires that merchandise transported by water within the U.S. be carried on ships that are owned, built, and crewed by U.S. citizens. He also suggests that policymakers explore options to rebuild domestic shipbuilding, infrastructure and labor force capabilities. Another recommendation is to collaborate with countries that need job opportunities.
The report, titled "The Energy Transition's Global Shipping Challenge," is available at energyanalytics.org/shipping.
About the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA):
The National Center for Energy Analytics is a think tank devoted to data-driven analyses of policies, plans, and technologies surrounding the supply and use of energy essential for human flourishing. Through objective analyses of energy policies and their implications, NCEA aims to inform policymakers, industry leaders, and the public on critical energy issues.
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