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U.S. Energy Security Index: Technical Appendix

Technical appendix to The Role of Energy in U.S. National Security, documenting the indicators, methodology, and data behind the U.S. Energy Security Index.

Energy Security
Energy Policy & Regulation

This is the Technical Appendix to The Role of Energy in U.S. National Security, the report that introduces NCEA’s U.S. Energy Security Index. It sets out the indicators, data sources, and calculation steps behind the index.

The National Center for Energy Analytics’ U.S. Energy Security Index (ESI) measures the geopolitical risks to the nation’s energy system, both historically and as a leading indicator of future trends based on current forecasts for the coming decade.

The methodology we employed and the indicators we selected for the index account for various aspects of geopolitical energy security. The goal is to create a single, overarching measure to answer a critical question: Is the nation’s energy security getting better or worse?

The process used to develop ESI was based on the following five steps:

1. Select a set of indicators that capture the salient geopolitical aspects of energy security.

To capture the energy security of the United States in a single index, we looked at 18 indicators—organized into six indicator groups—that address the key geopolitical vulnerabilities of the U.S. energy system. These groups are representative of the physical flow of fuels and minerals that support the major hydrocarbons; the minerals that are critical to new energy technologies and general energy infrastructure; and the cybersecurity threats to the energy system. In our view, these indicators provide a reasonably comprehensive picture of the foreign-based risks to the U.S. energy system.

We did not consider coal supplies in ESI, as the United States has always produced large volumes of both thermal and metallurgical coal and has long been a net exporter of both. Indeed, the risks surrounding coal are not geopolitical but rather domestically political and regulatory.1 Similarly, in measuring the risks associated with energy and mineral imports, we treated the highly integrated U.S., Canadian, and Mexican markets as a single domestic market.

2. Organize these indicators into groups representing different aspects of energy security.

ESI combines 18 risk indicators that measure U.S. energy security across a range of fuels,2 minerals,3 uranium,4 and systemic considerations.5 In general, the indicators we selected measure vulnerabilities associated with imports of traditional fuels, such as U.S. crude oil and natural gas; uranium and foreign enrichment services for nuclear power; aluminum, copper, and steel used in energy infrastructure; and cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, and rare earth elements used extensively in renewable technologies, batteries, and electric vehicles.

These 18 indicators were organized into six indicator groups, as shown in table A-1.

Table A-1. ESI Indicators
Indicator GroupIndicator #Risk to/from
Crude Oil1World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production
2Net Crude Oil Imports
Natural Gas3World Natural Gas Production
4Net Natural Gas Imports
Uranium5Net Uranium Imports
6Uranium Enrichment Services
Energy Technology Minerals7Net Cobalt Imports
8Net Graphite Imports
9Net Lithium Imports
10Net Manganese Imports
11Net Rare Earths Imports
Energy Infrastructure Minerals12Net Aluminum Imports
13Net Copper Imports
14Net Nickel Imports
15Net Steel Imports
Systemic16Cybersecurity
17Crude Oil Price Volatility
18Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks

3. Compile historical and forecast data for each indicator.

Nearly all of the data were drawn from government statistical agencies, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Geological Survey, and the British Geological Survey. To provide historical context, we gathered data going back to 1970, a few years before the Arab oil embargo made energy security a perennial political concern for Congress and U.S. presidents. The data used to develop the indicators are updated annually, which allows us to continue to track progress each year.

As a measure of the relative risk and security associated with global energy and mineral supplies, we used two of the primary elements of supply security: reliability and diversity of imports. To measure the reliability of supplies, we used scores of political and civil liberties developed by Freedom House in its annually published Freedom in the World series. To measure the diversity of supply, we employed the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a tool commonly used in antitrust analysis. This diversity component recognizes that greater supply diversity indicates greater competition and less volatility and, consequently, lowers risk.6

There also are risks attached to the transport of fuels and materials to markets, traditionally for oil but increasingly for natural gas and energy minerals. Large volumes of crude oil must pass through maritime chokepoints—most notably, the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply each day. To account for this vulnerability, we combined the market share of seven Persian Gulf States (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) in the HHI calculations for oil and natural gas, as their crude oil exports transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Added to these market- and import-related indicators, ESI includes three systemic indicators designed to capture changing threats to the U.S. energy system that are not attached to the production or import of any particular commodity.

The Combined Crude Oil Price Volatility indicator increases the sensitivity of ESI to risks arising from global hostilities that affect energy production. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks indicator measures U.S. preparedness to manage disruptions in crude oil supplies. The Cybersecurity indicator measures the risks from cyberattacks on U.S. energy installations, which can originate from both malicious domestic actors and foreign governments hostile to the United States.

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) series was the primary source of the forecasts used in ESI. Where AEO projections were not available—such as the freedom weighting of international energy and mineral production—we applied a neutral assumption extended over the forecast period, using the most recent year of available data.

4. Normalize the data to allow adding them together for ESI.

When dealing with metrics expressed in different units, it becomes necessary to convert the data into comparable constituents that can be combined into a single index score. For ESI, each individual metric was normalized so that its maximum historical value—that is, its worst value—from 1970 to 2019 was set to 100. This system of normalization eliminates distortions that arise from using a single base year. It does not mean, however, that indicators’ risk scores cannot be greater than 100. For emerging risks in particular, there are instances of post-2019 indicator scores exceeding 100. With this in mind, a total ESI risk score approaching 100 or even 90 indicates very high levels of overall risk across many metrics. Also, it should be noted that there are no negative risk scores; the lowest possible risk score for both individual indicators and total ESI scores is zero.

5. Weigh and combine the data to create an overall score of geopolitical energy vulnerability.

The final step in calculating ESI is to assign weights to the indicators. ESI employs a dynamic weighting scheme, as each indicator’s contribution to the final index varies annually. These weighted values reflect indicators’ importance to the U.S. energy system; the weights change over time. We assign weights to the various indicators based on their share of U.S. primary energy consumption, their contribution to the economy, or their estimated contribution to total risk. Table A-2 shows the weighting formulas used in ESI.

Table A-2. ESI Indicator Groups
Indicator GroupIndicatorsShare of WeightingWeighting
Crude OilWorld Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production20%Petroleum consumption as share of total U.S. energy consumption
Net Crude Oil Imports80%
Natural GasWorld Natural Gas Production10%Natural gas consumption as share of total U.S. energy consumption
Net Natural Gas Imports90%
UraniumNet Uranium Imports50%Nuclear energy consumption as share of total U.S. energy consumption
Uranium Enrichment Services50%
Energy Technology MineralsNet Cobalt Imports20%Total of electricity generation from wind and solar and electricity going to battery storage and electric vehicles as share of total U.S. energy consumption
Net Graphite Imports20%
Net Lithium Imports20%
Net Manganese Imports20%
Net Rare Earths Imports20%
Energy Infrastructure MineralsNet Aluminum Imports25%Energy industries* as share of U.S. GDP
Net Copper Imports25%
Net Nickel Imports25%
Net Steel Imports25%
SystemicCybersecurity100%2.5% multiplied by the number of cyber incidents divided by the number of cyber incidents in 2012
Combined Crude Oil Price Volatility100%5%
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks100%5% of Net Crude Oil Imports indicator

Note: ESI weightings were proportionally adjusted to add to 100%.
*This includes oil and gas extraction; utilities; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and petroleum and coal products.

Indicator Summaries

World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production

Indicator Group: Crude Oil

Why It Is Important: This indicates the level of risk tied to each barrel of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) produced globally.

What It Measures: This measures the reliability and diversity of global crude oil and NGPL supplies.

How It Is Calculated: This annual indicator is the product of: (1) the country-weighted average freedom score of each barrel produced (a proxy for geopolitical reliability); and (2) the concentration of production measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (a measure of market diversity), with Persian Gulf producer countries considered as a single producer, in order to capture the concentration of supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The values for both were normalized (with Freedom House scores squared beforehand) so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100. The product of these normalized values was calculated and normalized using the same procedure.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; EIA

Bar chart of the freedom-weighted score of world crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production, 1970 to 2035, historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The score stays in a narrow band, roughly 4 to 5, with a small peak in the mid 1970s and a flat projection.
Freedom-Weighted World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production Output
Bar chart of the diversity (HHI) of world crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production, 1970 to 2035, historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Values hover near 1,000 to 1,300 until about 2000, then climb steeply to about 3,700 before a flat projection.
Diversity of World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production Output
Bar chart of the world crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index falls to a low around 1990, then rises sharply after 2000 to above 100 and holds flat in the projection.
World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production Index

Net Crude Oil Imports

Indicator Group: Crude Oil

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of crude oil.

What It Measures: The volume of net crude oil imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global crude oil and NGPL supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net crude oil imports as a share of refinery inputs, and (2) the level of risk tied to each barrel of crude oil and NGPL produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net crude oil imports as a share of refinery inputs to distillation units weighted by petroleum consumption as share of total U.S. energy consumption; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global crude oil production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico and combining the Persian Gulf producers. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; EIA’s Monthly Energy Review series and International Data

Bar chart of the risk-weighted crude oil import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The score peaks in the late 1970s near 40, rises again to a lower hump in the 2000s and 2010s, falls in the 2020s, and edges up slightly in the projection.
Risk-Weighted Crude Oil Imports
Bar chart of the crude oil imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. It peaks at 100 in the late 1970s, has a second smaller high around 2010, drops after 2017, and rises gradually in the projection.
Crude Oil Imports Index

World Natural Gas Production

Indicator Group: Natural Gas

Why It Is Important: This indicates the level of risk tied to each cubic foot of natural gas produced globally.

What It Measures: This measures the reliability and diversity of global natural gas production.

How It Is Calculated: This annual indicator is the product of: (1) the country-weighted average freedom score of each barrel produced (a proxy for geopolitical reliability); and (2) the concentration of production measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (a measure of market diversity), with Persian Gulf producer countries considered a single producer, in order to capture the concentration of supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The values for both were normalized (with Freedom House scores squared beforehand) so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; EIA

Bar chart of the freedom-weighted score of world natural gas production, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The score rises from about 2.4 in 1970 to a peak in the mid 1980s, dips, and then climbs to about 4.2 before a flat projection.
Freedom-Weighted World Natural Gas Production
Bar chart of the concentration (HHI) of world natural gas production, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Values start high in 1970, stay near 1,000 to 1,300 until about 2000, then rise steeply to reach the top of the axis around 3,900 and stay flat in the projection.
Concentration of World Natural Gas Production
Bar chart of the world natural gas production index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is low through the 1990s, then rises steeply after 2000 to reach the top of the chart and stays flat in the projection.
World Natural Gas Production Index

Net Natural Gas Imports

Indicator Group: Natural Gas

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of natural gas.

What It Measures: The volume of net natural gas imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global natural gas and NGPL supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net natural gas imports as a share of natural gas demand, and (2) the level of risk tied to each cubic foot of natural gas produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net natural gas imports as a share of demand weighted by natural gas consumption as a share of total U.S. energy consumption; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global natural gas production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico and combining the Persian Gulf producers. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; EIA’s Monthly Energy Review series and International Data

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net natural gas import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores are positive, about 2 to 5, through the 1970s to 2010s, then turn negative after about 2017 and fall to roughly negative 8 by 2035 in the projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Natural Gas Imports
Bar chart of the net natural gas imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100). Dark blue historical bars rise to a peak of 100 around 1988, then decline toward about 10 by 2016; no bars are shown after 2016, so the projection period appears empty even though the legend lists projected values.
Net Natural Gas Imports Index

Net Uranium Imports

Indicator Group: Uranium

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of uranium.

What It Measures: The volume of net uranium imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global uranium supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net uranium imports as a share of demand, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of uranium produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net uranium imports as a share of nuclear plant demand weighted by nuclear energy consumption as a share of total U.S. energy consumption; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global uranium production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; EIA’s Uranium Marketing Annual Report series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net uranium import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Values are near zero until the 1980s, stay low through the 2000s, then rise steeply to a peak above 120 around 2021 before a flat projection near 95.
Risk-Weighted Net Uranium Imports
Bar chart of the net uranium imports index, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The shape matches the underlying score, near zero until the 1980s, rising sharply after 2008 to a peak above 120 around 2021, then a flat projection; the axis label reads 1970 to 2019 MAX = 1200.
Net Uranium Imports Index

Uranium Enrichment Services

Indicator Group: Uranium

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which foreign purchases of separative work units (SWUs) expose the U.S. nuclear industry to unreliable supplies or enriched nuclear fuel.

What It Measures: This measures the share of foreign enrichment services purchased by the total amount of enrichment services purchased.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) foreign SWUs purchased, divided by the total number of SWUs purchased; and (2) the total number of SWUs purchased. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100. These data begin in 1993.

Data Source: EIA’s Uranium Marketing Annual Report series

Bar chart of uranium enrichment services purchased as a share of total, shown as a fraction from 0 to 1, 1970 to 2035. The value sits at a constant low level until about 1993, jumps to roughly 0.8 to 0.9 after 2000 with some variation, and the projection is flat at about 0.7.
Uranium Enrichment Services Purchased
Bar chart of the uranium enrichment services index, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is flat and low until about 1993, rises to the 80s and 90s after 2000 with a peak of 100 around 2016, and the projection is flat near 75; the axis label reads 1970 to 2019 MAX = 1200.
Uranium Enrichment Services Index

Net Cobalt Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Technology Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of cobalt.

What It Measures: The volume of net cobalt imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global mined cobalt supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net cobalt imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of cobalt produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net cobalt imports as a share of apparent consumption, weighted by the share of total U.S. energy consumption accounted for by electricity generation from wind and solar plus electricity for battery storage and electric vehicles; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global mined cobalt production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net cobalt import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores start between 60 and 76 in the early 1970s, fall to low levels from the mid 1970s through the 2000s, then climb after 2010 to about 116 by 2025 and stay flat in the projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Cobalt Imports
Bar chart of the net cobalt imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index peaks at 100 in the mid 1970s, drops, then rises after 2010 to above 150 by 2025 and holds flat in the projection.
Net Cobalt Imports Index

Net Graphite Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Technology Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of graphite.

What It Measures: The volume of net graphite imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global graphite supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net graphite imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of graphite produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net graphite imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by the share of total U.S. energy consumption accounted for by electricity generation from wind and solar plus electricity for battery storage and electric vehicles; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global graphite production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net graphite import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores are low until about 1990, jump to a peak of 100 around 1995, remain high through the 2000s, then fall and level off near 70 in a flat projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Graphite Imports
Bar chart of the net graphite imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is near 10 until about 1990, peaks at 100 around 1995, stays high through the 2000s, and then declines to a flat projection near 70.
Net Graphite Imports Index

Net Lithium Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Technology Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of lithium.

What It Measures: The volume of net lithium imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global lithium mineral supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net lithium imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of lithium produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net lithium imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by the share of total U.S. energy consumption accounted for by electricity generation from wind and solar plus electricity for battery storage and electric vehicles; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global lithium production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net lithium import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1999; scores then vary between about 1.5 and 8, with a peak around 2011, and the projection is flat near 4.5.
Risk-Weighted Net Lithium Imports
Bar chart of the net lithium imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1999; the index then fluctuates widely with a peak of 100 around 2011, and the projection is flat near 57.
Net Lithium Imports Index

Net Manganese Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Technology Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of manganese.

What It Measures: The volume of net manganese imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global manganese ore supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net manganese imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of manganese ore produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net manganese imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by the share of total U.S. energy consumption accounted for by electricity generation from wind and solar plus electricity for battery storage and electric vehicles; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global manganese ore production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net manganese import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores are high, about 60 to 100, through the 1970s and 1980s, drop sharply around 1991, and stay very low afterward, with a flat low projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Manganese Imports
Bar chart of the net manganese imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is high, up to 100, through the 1970s and 1980s, falls sharply in about 1991 to a low level, and stays low through a flat projection.
Net Manganese Imports Index

Net Rare Earths Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Technology Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of rare earths.

What It Measures: The volume of net rare earths imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global rare earths mineral supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net rare earths imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of rare earths minerals produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net rare earths imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by the share of total U.S. energy consumption accounted for by electricity generation from wind and solar plus electricity for battery storage and electric vehicles; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global rare earths mineral production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net rare earths import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores are low until about 1990, rise to a plateau of roughly 70 to 80 through the 1990s and 2000s, decline after 2010, and the projection is flat near 47.
Risk-Weighted Net Rare Earths Imports
Bar chart of the net rare earths imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is low until about 1990, rises to about 80 to 100 through the 1990s and 2000s, declines after 2010, and the projection is flat near 57.
Net Rare Earths Imports Index

Net Aluminum Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Infrastructure Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of aluminum.

What It Measures: The volume of net aluminum imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global primary aluminum supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net aluminum imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of primary aluminum produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net aluminum imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by energy industries (including oil and gas extraction; utilities; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and petroleum and coal products) as a share of U.S. GDP; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global aluminum mineral production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net aluminum import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1992; scores stay below 25 until the 2010s and then rise to about 58 by 2022 with a flat projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Aluminum Imports
Bar chart of the net aluminum imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1992; the index is small until 2012, then rises quickly past 100 by the early 2020s, and the projection is flat near 103.
Net Aluminum Imports Index

Net Copper Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Infrastructure Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of copper.

What It Measures: The volume of net copper imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global mined copper supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net copper imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of mined copper produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net copper imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by energy industries (including oil and gas extraction; utilities; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and petroleum and coal products) as a share of U.S. GDP; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global copper mineral production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net copper import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1992; scores then rise unevenly to about 33 by 2025, and the projection is flat at that level.
Risk-Weighted Net Copper Imports
Bar chart of the net copper imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No values appear before about 1992; the index rises unevenly, passes 100 around 2020, and reaches about 140 in a flat projection.
Net Copper Imports Index

Net Nickel Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Infrastructure Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of nickel.

What It Measures: The volume of net nickel imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global mined nickel supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net nickel imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of mined nickel produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net nickel imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by energy industries (including oil and gas extraction; utilities; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and petroleum and coal products) as a share of U.S. GDP; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global nickel ore production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net nickel import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores run from about 10 to 60 for most of the period, then rise steeply after about 2018 to reach the top of the chart near 98 and stay flat in the projection.
Risk-Weighted Net Nickel Imports
Bar chart of the net nickel imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index mostly ranges between about 15 and 100, then rises steeply after 2018 to about 160 by 2025 and stays flat in the projection.
Net Nickel Imports Index

Net Steel Imports

Indicator Group: Energy Infrastructure Minerals

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which changes in import levels expose the United States to unreliable and concentrated supplies of steel.

What It Measures: The volume of net steel imports is weighted by the reliability and diversity of global crude steel supplies. This indicator combines: (1) the quantity of net steel imports as a share of apparent consumption, and (2) the level of risk tied to each unit of crude steel produced globally.

How It Is Calculated: This indicator is the product of: (1) net steel imports as a share of apparent consumption weighted by energy industries (including oil and gas extraction; utilities; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and petroleum and coal products) as a share of U.S. GDP; and (2) the reliability and diversity of global steel mineral production, excluding the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Sources: Freedom House’s Freedom in the World series; British Geological Survey’s World Mineral Statistics series; U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries series

Bar chart of the risk-weighted net steel import score, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Scores stay low, about 1 to 5, until the mid 2000s, jump to a peak above 22 around 2015, fall back, and the projection is flat near 13.
Risk-Weighted Steel Imports
Bar chart of the net steel imports index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index is near 10 for decades, surges to a peak of 100 around 2015, then settles lower, and the projection is flat near 60.
Net Steel Imports Index

Cybersecurity

Indicator Group: Systemic

Why It Is Important: This indicates the degree to which U.S. energy infrastructure is vulnerable to cyberattacks.

What It Measures: This measures physical and cyberattacks, or threats against the grid, as reported by utilities to the Department of Energy since 2012.

How It Is Calculated: The values were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100.

Data Source: U.S. Department of Energy

Bar chart of the number of cyberattacks, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No bars appear before about 2007; counts then rise, with a dip in the mid 2010s, and climb sharply in the 2020s to about 185, which is held flat in the projection.
Cyberattacks
Bar chart of the cybersecurity index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. No bars appear before about 2007; the index rises, dips in the mid 2010s, climbs past 200 by the mid 2020s, and is held flat in the projection.
Cybersecurity Index

Crude Oil Price Volatility

Indicator Group: Systemic

Why It Is Important: This indicates the vulnerability of the U.S. to large swings in the price of crude oil.

What It Measures: This measures the three-year rolling average of the absolute change in the price of a barrel of crude oil from the previous year: (1) in 2024 dollars, and (2) as a share of the price.

How It Is Calculated: The values and share histories were normalized so that the maximum (i.e., worst) historical value from 1970 to 2019 = 100. The annual average of these was then normalized using the same procedure.

Data Sources: EIA’s Petroleum & Other Liquids dataset and Monthly Energy Review series

Bar chart of absolute crude oil price volatility in 2024 dollars per barrel, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Values are small in the 1970s, show peaks around 1980, 2000, and a high near 2011, and the projection is flat at about 18.
Absolute Crude Oil Price Volatility
Bar chart of crude oil price volatility as a share of price, in percent, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. Values swing between roughly 0.02 and 0.45 with repeated peaks, including around 1987, 2000, 2010, and 2016, and the projection is flat at about 0.19.
Crude Oil Price Volatility as Share of Price
Bar chart of the crude oil price volatility index (1970 to 2019 maximum = 100), 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index swings up and down with peaks of about 100 around 2010 and 2011 and another near 95 in the mid 2010s, and the projection is flat near 49.
Crude Oil Price Volatility Index

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks

Indicator Group: Systemic

What It Measures: This measures the number of days of average refinery crude oil inputs held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

How It Is Calculated: The risks measured by SPR stock levels move in the opposite direction from the indicator. The indicator was normalized so that SPR supplies for less than seven days were assigned a maximum score of 100. The time series was then inverted.

Why It Is Important: This indicates susceptibility of the U.S. to a crude oil supply disruption, based on the quantity of stockpiled crude oil available to be drawn down during an emergency.

Data Source: EIA’s Monthly Energy Review series

Bar chart of Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks measured in days of refinery supply, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The stock is near zero until the late 1970s, rises to about 40 to 50 days through the 1980s to 2010s, falls to about 23 days after 2021, and the projection stays near 24 to 25.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks
Bar chart of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks index, 1970 to 2035, with historical bars in dark blue and projected bars in teal. The index sits at 100 until about 1979, falls to the 15 to 20 range for most of the following decades, rises to about 30 in the early 2020s, and the projection stays near 29.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks Index

Data Output

Table A-3. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 1970–2035

Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 1970 through 1979; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3a. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 1970-1979
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 1980 through 1989; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3b. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 1980-1989
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 1990 through 1999; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3c. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 1990-1999
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 2000 through 2009; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3d. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 2000-2009
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 2010 through 2019; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3e. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 2010-2019
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 2020 through 2029; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3f. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 2020-2029
Data table of ESI indicator values for the years 2030 through 2035; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-3g. Energy Security Index Indicator Values, 2030-2035

Table A-4. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 1970——2035

Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 1970 through 1979; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4a. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 1970-1979
Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 1980 through 1989; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4b. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 1980-1989
Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 1990 through 1999; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4c. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 1990-1999
Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 2000 through 2009; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4d. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 2000-2009
Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 2010 through 2019; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4e. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 2010-2019
Data table of ESI normalized indicator risk scores for the years 2030 through 2035; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-4g. Energy Security Index Normalized Indicator Risk Scores, 2030-2035

Table A-5. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 1970–2035

Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 1970 through 1979; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5a. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 1970-1979
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 1980 through 1989; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5b. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 1980-1989
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 1990 through 1999; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5c. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 1990-1999
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 2000 through 2009; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5d. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 2000-2009
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 2010 through 2019; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5e. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 2010-2019
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 2020 through 2029; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5f. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 2020-2029
Data table of ESI indicator group weightings for the years 2030 through 2035; rows are the ESI indicators or indicator groups and columns are years.
Table A-5g. Energy Security Index Indicator Group Weightings, 2030-2035

Data Sources

The following provides a list of the main sources of the data used to compile ESI indicators.

U.S. Energy Information Administration

International Data is a database with historical international crude oil NGPL and natural gas production data. See https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world.

Monthly Energy Review is a series on historical domestic energy production, demand, import, export, refinery inputs, and stocks data, available from https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly.

Petroleum & Other Liquids contains historical crude oil price data. Visit https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php.

Annual Energy Outlook is a report series that forecasts domestic energy production, demand, and refinery inputs data. See https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo.

The Uranium Marketing Annual Report series includes historical data on uranium supplies and imports, available from https://www.eia.gov/uranium/marketing.

U.S. Geological Survey

The Mineral Commodity Summaries series compiles historical international mineral production data and imports data, available from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries.

British Geological Survey

World Mineral Statistics Data includes historical international mineral and uranium production data. See https://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/world-mineral-statistics/world-mineral-statistics-data-download/world-mineral-statistics-data.

Freedom House

Freedom in the World is a series that provides historical data on international political and civil liberties data. Visit https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world.

Contact

For additional information, questions, or comments, use NCEA’s contact form or email NCEAInfo@energyanalytics.org.

Notes

  1. Coal’s important roles in grid stability, reliability, and affordable electricity will be more apparent in forthcoming components of the Index of Leading Energy Indicators project, which will cover these aspects of the U.S. energy system.
  2. Crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and natural gas production and imports.
  3. Aluminum, copper, steel, and nickel (key minerals common to all energy machinery), as well as cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and rare earths (some of the key minerals used for alternative energy technologies).
  4. Uranium supplies and enrichment services.
  5. Cybersecurity, crude oil price volatility, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil stocks.
  6. HHI is calculated by taking the market share percentage of each country’s production, squaring that share, and summing those squares across all suppliers. A market with a single supplier would have an HHI score of 10,000. The greater the number of producers, the lower the HHI score.

About the author

Iddo K. Wernick, PhD

Visiting Fellow
View full bio →
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Stephen D. Eule

Senior Fellow
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