New Energy Security Index Warns U.S. Risks Losing Shale-Era Energy Security Gains
The energy security gains the United States achieved during the shale revolution are beginning to erode and could continue weakening through 2035, according to a new report from the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA).
In 2010 crude oil and natural gas risks accounted for 72% of total U.S. energy security exposure in 2010. But by 2025, that share fell to 46%. The analysis reveals that rising risks from energy-related mineral supplies are creating new vulnerabilities.
The report, "The Role of Energy in U.S. National Security," authored by Iddo K. Wernick, Ph.D. and Stephen D. Eule, introduces the U.S. Energy Security Index (ESI), a data-driven indicator designed to measure and forecast geopolitical risks affecting the nation's energy system. Using 18 quantitative indicators across six categories--including crude oil, natural gas, uranium, energy technology minerals, energy infrastructure minerals, and systemic threats--the index evaluates historical trends from 1970 to 2025 and projects future risks through 2035.
"Energy security has been a critical feature of geopolitics since the dawn of the modern era. Although such concerns moved into the background of geopolitics in the post-World War II era, the 1973 Arab oil embargo reignited energy security debates and motivated Congress and U.S. presidents--across party lines--to enact far-reaching federal legislation," the authors wrote. "Political anxieties abated after 2010, when the shale revolution gained momentum and eventually made the United States a net energy exporter for the first time in 70 years. Energy security has returned as a political concern amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the dominance of China in energy minerals, and the conflict in Iran.
Several findings from the inaugural Energy Security Index highlight shifts in the geopolitical risks facing the U.S. energy system:
- Critical minerals are now a major driver of rising energy security risk. Supply chains for minerals used in solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are highly concentrated globally and increasingly dominated by countries considered geopolitical competitors or unstable suppliers.
- Many of the fastest-growing mineral supply chains are concentrated in a few countries. Forecasts indicate that most projected supply growth for graphite and nickel will come from China and Indonesia, while45% to 75% of new supply for refined copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements is expected to come from China.
- The 2024 Energy Security Index score was 42.2,roughly 5.8 points below the long-term historical average, but the index rose 3.4 points between 2020 and 2025,reflecting new vulnerabilities in minerals supply chains, cybersecurity risks, and reduced strategic petroleum reserves.
- The shale revolution dramatically reduced U.S. oil and natural gas risk. Rapid growth in domestic production since 2008 significantly lowered import vulnerabilities and enabled the United States to impose sanctions on major oil exporters while maintaining stable global oil markets.
Despite the recent rise in risk, the index indicates that U.S. energy security remains stronger today than during the oil crises of the 1970s. The authors note, however, that the changing composition of the energy system means future energy security challenges will increasingly involve mineral supply chains, infrastructure resilience, and technological dependencies rather than oil imports alone.
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