AI below the waterline
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This report, published by the Brookings Institution and co-authored by NCEA Advisor and Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow David G. Victor and Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Jones, examines how artificial intelligence is likely to shape undersea warfare and U.S. naval strategy.
The study challenges the widely held view that AI will make the oceans "transparent" and enable seamless, interconnected "kill webs" below the surface as it is expected to above it. Instead, the authors argue that the physics of the undersea environment, where communication and sensing over distance are far harder and stealth is paramount, will limit how much AI can transform subsurface operations.
Key findings include:
- AI-enabled undersea platforms and sensors will likely operate as a patchwork of small, loosely linked local networks rather than a unified global system
- Solitary, stealthy submarines, both nuclear-armed and fast attack, will remain highly valuable to a survivable and capable undersea force
- AI will have the greatest impact in narrow waterways and chokepoints, giving an edge to U.S. allies located near the operating theater and integrated into U.S. detection and communication systems
- AI can still deliver major gains in submarine design, manufacturing, maintenance, and oceanography, a field where U.S. leadership is eroding as China invests heavily
- Seabed data cables, which carry more than 90% of U.S. military command-and-control communications and increasingly power AI itself, are vulnerable, and current U.S. doctrine and capacity to defend them fall short
The report concludes that the Pentagon should avoid planning around infeasible undersea kill webs and instead prioritize shorter procurement cycles, rapid experimentation, and adaptability, guided by a clear understanding of how AI differs above and below the waterline.
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