Energy security rarely dominates the news - until something breaks.

A supply disruption.
A geopolitical conflict.
A cyberattack.
A price shock.

Then suddenly, the stability of the energy system becomes everyone's concern.

That raises a fundamental question:

Is America's energy system becoming more secure - or more exposed?

With the launch of the Index of Leading Energy Indicators(TM), the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA) introduces a new framework to answer critical energy policy questions. The first installment is the U.S. Energy Security Index (ESI).

Findings in the ESI are both encouraging and cautionary.

Why Create an Energy Security Index?

Complex systems require clear measures.

Economists rely on GDP as a proxy for economic performance. It doesn't capture everything - but it provides direction.

Energy is equally complex. It spans domestic production, import dependence, supply chains for minerals, uranium markets, electricity infrastructure, cybersecurity exposure, and strategic reserves.

Until now, there has been no single integrated measure focused exclusively on U.S. geopolitical energy risk.

The Energy Security Index fills that gap.

As the report states:

"ESI was designed to help assess whether the nation's energy security is getting better or worse."

The Index integrates 18 quantitative risk indicators across six domains:

• Crude Oil

• Natural Gas

• Uranium

• Energy Technology Minerals

• Energy Infrastructure Minerals

• Systemic risks (including cybersecurity and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)

It tracks historical trends from 1970 to 2025 and projects forward to 2035 based on current federal energy plans.

Higher scores indicate higher risk.

The methodology, assumptions, weightings, and data sources are fully transparent in the Technical Appendix.

The Trend: Gains, Then Reversal

The data show that U.S. energy security risk declined significantly between 2010 and 2020.

The shale revolution reduced oil and gas import dependence and reshaped America's geopolitical position. For the first time in decades, the United States became a net energy exporter.

But since 2020, the trend has shifted.

The Executive Summary notes:

"Although the overall U.S. energy security risk declined from 2010 to 2020, recent trends show that geopolitical risks rose from 2020 to 2025 and will continue to rise over the coming decade."

Even more notably:

"Over the coming decade the United States is on track to wipe out most of the gains in security achieved since 2010."

In other words, past progress does not guarantee future resilience.

A Changing Risk Landscape

Energy security today does not look lthe way it did in the 1970s.

The ESI shows that reductions in oil and natural gas vulnerabilities have been offset by rising exposure in other areas.

The report explains:

"Reductions in energy security risks associated with oil and natural gas have been more than offset by rising vulnerabilities associated with alternative energy technologies."

Several forces are driving this shift:

Mineral Supply Concentration

Solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and grid infrastructure depend heavily on critical minerals - often sourced or refined in geopolitically concentrated regions.

Uranium Import Dependence

Nuclear energy remains a key component of the U.S. power mix, but its fuel supply chains present exposure risks.

Cybersecurity Threats

As energy systems become more digitized, they also become more vulnerable to cyber disruption.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Levels

The SPR has historically served as a buffer during supply shocks. Lower inventories reduce that cushion.

The key takeaway is not that any one energy source is inherently secure or insecure.

It is that risk changes form - and must be measured as it evolves.

Why This Matters Beyond Policy Circles

Energy security is not abstract.

It affects:

• Price stability

• Inflation

• Industrial competitiveness

• Grid reliability

• National defense

• Community resilience

When energy systems are stable, economic growth is smoother. When they are fragile, disruptions ripple quickly through the broader economy.

The ESI does not advocate a particular policy.

It provides a numerical baseline for evaluating whether current plans strengthen or weaken America's geopolitical energy position.

The First Step in a Broader Framework

The Energy Security Index is the first of four components in the The Index of Leading Energy Indicators.

Future releases will assess:

• Affordability

• Reliability

• Environmental footprint (land and resources use).

The long-term goal is an interactive dashboard offering a comprehensive view of the U.S. energy system - updated as data and policy plans evolve.

The Bottom Line

The United States achieved significant energy security gains in the past decade.

But according to the Energy Security Index, those gains are not guaranteed to persist.

Energy security is foundational. It underpins economic performance, strategic autonomy, and national resilience.

Understanding the direction of risk today helps inform better decisions tomorrow.

The full Energy Security Index report lays out the data, methodology, and projections in detail.

Because in energy - as in economics - direction matters.

And knowing whether risk is rising or falling is the first step toward shaping what comes next.

Read the report